As consumers craft their holiday budgets (and check them twice) this year, many are upping their planned spend.

The National Retail Federation (NRF) released a headline-making prediction earlier this month, anticipating holiday retail sales would jump 3.7%–4.2% and exceed $1 trillion for the first time ever. Consumers plan to spend $890.49 per person on average this year—the second-highest amount in the NRF survey’s 23 years. NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a statement that while shoppers “may be cautious in sentiment,” the group is “bullish about the holiday shopping season."

Other analysts shared similar predictions that, while in many cases represent a slight deceleration in spending, still indicate sales upticks ranging from around 3%–5%.

But these predictions come in tandem with rising prices, and aren’t too far off the YoY inflation rate of 3%, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics last month—so that higher spend doesn’t automatically equate to a bigger pile of gifts under the tree.

“One of the things that consumers are clearly saying to us is price increase expectations are very high, so just because consumers expect to spend more doesn’t mean they’re going to necessarily buy more,” Chad Lusk, managing director in Alvarez & Marsal’s Consumer and Retail Group, told Retail Brew.

Keep reading here.—EC

Big box retailer Target said on Wednesday that it will install the Target app within OpenAI’s chatbot ChatGPT to let users shop directly within the platform. Shoppers can search and cart items in ChatGPT, then complete purchases with their Target account.

“Our goal is simple: Make every interaction feel as natural, helpful, and inspiring as chatting with a friend,” Prat Vemana, EVP and chief information and product officer at Target, wrote in a press statement. Target will also let consumers fulfill drive-thru and pickup orders within ChatGPT, the company said.

Like Walmart, Target’s new AI-driven shopping experience is framed as an effort to meet shoppers where they are, especially given the rising referral traffic from generative AI sources like ChatGPT to retailer websites. Meanwhile, OpenAI is making an aggressive push into e-commerce, striking similar partnerships with Shopify and Etsy.

Keep reading here.—VC

What’s driving holiday shopping decisions this year? Competitive prices, value for money, and—more than ever—fast delivery.

According to Blue Yonder’s 2025 Global Consumer Holiday Shipping Survey, 53% of shoppers expect their online orders to arrive within two to four days. Yet, confidence is lower; only 34% of the more than 6,000 respondents said they felt sure their purchases would arrive on time.

It is also why 78% of respondents were mapping out their holiday gift purchases three to four weeks in advance.

And while expedited shipping exists, 40% of US consumers say they’re unwilling to pay extra to speed up delivery. Instead, many would rather pick up orders themselves, with 53% of total respondents opting for in-store pickup and 42% choosing free locker pickup where available.

Keep reading here.—JS