While this year has seen a handful of marquee CPG M&A moves, economic volatility and declining consumer confidence could be a dealbreaker for many consumer products giants.

Most of the year’s top deals have come in the food and beverage space. The first quarter’s biggest (and buzziest) deal was Pepsi’s proposed purchase of Poppi for almost $2 billion. That was preceded by another major beverage deal, Celsius’s announced acquisition of female-focused energy drink brand Alani Nu for $1.8 billion in March. And yogurt giant Chobani said it’s buying ready-to-make meal brand Daily Harvest, which was valued at $1.1 billion in 2021, for an undisclosed amount in May.

In beauty and personal care, two May deals—E.l.f’s announced acquisition of Hailey Bieber’s Rhode for $1 billion, and Church & Dwight’s plans to buy trendy hand sanitizer brand Touchland in a deal valued up to $880 million—have been highlights.

In Q1, the consumer products space saw an 18% drop in deal volume quarter over quarter, and 13% drop year over year, while deal value (the Pepsi-Poppi deal was nearly a quarter of the $8.6 billion total), was flat QoQ and up 39% YoY, according to KPMG.

As uncertainty proliferates, only low-risk deals based on long-term consumer trends have been struck, while others are waiting out the storm, experts say.

Keep reading here.—EC

Ulta Beauty reported a surprisingly shiny quarter amid recently appointed CEO Kecia Steelman’s turnaround efforts and continued consumer demand for beauty categories like fragrance.

On its earnings call, Steelman noted that there’s no indication consumers are trading down on beauty purchases, and its spend per member is “fairly consistent” across income levels, though value is “an increasingly important priority.”

“Many consumers indicate they’re leaning into beauty as a comfort and escape from the stress of macro uncertainty, and we expect this emotional connection will support the category’s resilience going forward,” she said.

Net sales in the first quarter rose 4.5% to $2.8 billion, thanks to a 2.9% increase in comparable sales and new store openings. Comp sales grew for the first time in a year, driven by a 2.3% increase in customer spend per visit, and 0.6% rise in transactions. The retailer upped the high end of its full-year net sales and comp sales outlooks as a result.

Keep reading here.—EC

The Nintendo Switch 2 is hitting shelves globally on Thursday, and Nintendo president Shuntaro Furukawa is concerned the tariff situation could hamper demand for the highly anticipated gaming console. The console is already $150 more than its predecessor, but reportedly that had nothing to do with tariffs.

Here’s what else is going on in retail this week:

In earnings: There are just a few more Q1 earnings on the docket this quarter, and most of them are from discounters. First up, though, is a major CPG: Campbell’s on Monday. Then, Dollar General and Ollie’s Bargain Outlet are reporting on Tuesday, followed by Dollar Tree and Five below on Wednesday. On the discount front, TJX Companies reported last month, signaling optimism overall that it could weather the tariff situation, even as it acknowledged some headwinds from the trade restrictions.

Keep reading here.—AV