The 90-day pause on the Trump administration’s steepest China tariffs is set to cause a surge in imports at major container ports, according to a new report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
The pause comes at a crucial moment for retailers as they enter the back-to-school season and prepare for the Q4 holiday season, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold explained.
“Retailers had paused their purchases and imports previously because of the significantly high tariffs,” he said. “They are now looking to get those orders and cargo moving in order to bring as much merchandise into the country as they can before the reciprocal tariff and additional China tariff pauses end in July and August.”
The goal is to make sure consumers have access to the right products at the right price, he added, and for the moment that means stocking up while the getting is good.
- The import data for May has not been released yet, but in April, imports were up 2.9% from March and 9.6% year over year.
In the meantime, the trade group is urging the administration to continue negotiations with China so as to bring predictability back to the supply chain.
The surge is just the latest whipsaw to come in the wake of Trump’s announcement of 145% tariffs on Chinese goods. The news initially led retailers to cancel or suspend orders. Now with the 90-day pause, which will continue until August 12, orders are piling in.
“Our projections show that May saw a significant reduction in imports as shippers responded to the higher tariff environment,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said in a statement. “However, tariff reductions will lead to a surge in imports in June through August as importers take advantage of the various 90-day pauses.”
As a result, he added, peak imports for the winter holiday will come sooner and align partially with the peak for the back-to-school season, as retailers stock up for both sales seasons at once.
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