Higher-income parents plan to pull back on back-to-school spending

If a new survey from Deloitte proves correct, don’t expect a blowout back-to-school shopping season this year.

The survey estimates consumers will spend $570 per student, down $16 from last year and 7% from 2021. Total spending is expected to hit $30.9 billion, roughly flat year over year, as parents prioritize essentials, trade down where possible, and spread out their purchases.

“Parents are laser-focused on preparing their children for the school year, but we expect back-to-school spending to remain flat amid economic headwinds and financial concerns across income groups,” Natalie Martini, US retail and consumer products sector leader for Deloitte, said in a statement.

However, not every income group is pulling back equally. Middle and higher-income parents are planning to spend 7% and 9% less respectively, while lower-income parents plan to spend 10% more.

There is one bright spot, however, fueled by parents who appear determined to help their child make a good first-day impression. Apparel spending is predicted to rise 6%, with more than half of parents saying they were willing to spend extra on their child’s first-day outfit.

In the meantime, every other major category is predicted to decline, per Deloitte, including technology (-8%), school supplies (-3%) and health and home products (-12%).

This trend may be due to parents embracing more value-seeking behavior, such as waiting longer for lower-cost or no-cost deliveries, shifting to cheaper brands, using cash-back websites, and buying in bulk.

“Value for the money is the top driver of retailer choice, and parents are increasingly willing to switch brands or retailers to find the best deals,” Brian McCarthy, principal of retail strategy at Deloitte, said.