The annual holiday forecasts are rolling in at a steady clip, and the latest from Deloitte predicts retail sales will increase between 2.9% and 3.4%, down from 4.2% growth in 2024.
The research firm is expecting disposable personal income (DPI) to drive sales, growing 3.1% and 5.4% over the holiday period and offsetting some of the economic uncertainty facing consumers.
“Steady growth in income can help offset some economic uncertainty, including any labor market weakness and the burden of high credit card and student debt on consumer spending,” Akrur Barua, economist at Deloitte Insights, said in a statement.
He also acknowledged that while inflation will likely weigh on volumes, it will be a tailwind for the overall dollar value of retail sales—which Deloitte expects to total $1.61–$1.62 trillion in holiday spending from November to January.
E-commerce sales are also on track to give holiday spending a boost, with the category set to grow between 7% and 9% year over year, per the report.
“Our forecast anticipates that e-commerce sales will stay strong as consumers keep leveraging online deals to stretch their spending power,” Natalie Martini, vice chair at Deloitte and US retail and consumer products leader, said.
The study contrasts with a forecast from PricewaterhouseCoopers, which is predicting average holiday spending to decline 5% in the “the first notable drop since 2020.” That report found that a pullback from Gen Z may be one of the main drivers of the decline.
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