New restrictions on non-domiciled CDL holders and applicants could raise rates for retailers

The US Department of Transportation last month announced new restrictions on non-domiciled commercial learner’s permits and driver’s licences. This is the latest salvo in the Trump administration’s effort to crack down on non-citizen truck drivers, which DOT claims are creating an “imminent hazard on America’s roadways.”

The new restriction requires non-citizens to get an employment-based visa and a mandatory federal immigration status check, and DOT cites “an ongoing nationwide audit” by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) that “uncovered a catastrophic pattern of states issuing licenses illegally to foreign drivers.”

“Licenses to operate a massive, 80,000-pound truck are being issued to dangerous foreign drivers—often times illegally,” US Transportation Secretary Sean P. Duffy said in a statement. “This is a direct threat to the safety of every family on the road, and I won’t stand for it.”

In addition to the findings, the agency said it was responding to a “recent series of horrific, fatal crashes caused by non-domiciled drivers” like the August crash in Florida that killed three and led to charges of vehicular manslaughter for the driver, an immigrant from India who has pleaded not guilty; Duffy announced a FMCSA investigation into that accident not long after it occurred.

While the DOT announcement has garnered support from some within the trucking industry, the extent and urgency of the danger is debatable. FMCSA found just five fatal crashes involving non-domiciled CDL holders since January; there were 5,904 large trucks and buses involved in fatal crashes in 2021, the most recent full year for which there is publicly available data from the agency.

A potential loss of freight capacity could raise shipping costs for customers such as retailers if enforced—but that’s a big if, according to Mike Hosted, VP of sales and marketing at ATBS, a business services firm serving trucking companies.

Hosted said he’s met with major trucking companies and has so far heard very little buzz about the potential impact of this rule.

Major trucking firm JB Hunt expressed a similar sentiment over the summer, after DOT announced the audit in June, following new guidance to enforce English proficiency among truckers in May.

“While we could only guess the impact this might have on industry capacity for JB Hunt, we do not expect to see material impact,” COO Nicholas Hobbs told shareholders over the summer.

DOT is also stressing that the restrictions won’t impact US shipping.

“This is not going to impact the flow of goods at all,” Duffy said in a statement to Retail Brew. “We have a lot of drivers who are US citizens—who are ready, willing, and able to take these loads. We don’t need non-domiciled CDL drivers to carry loads in America.”

However, removing a significant portion of non-domiciled drivers from the road would likely have an impact on shipping rates, according to Hosted. For context, the industry is also experiencing a driver shortage.

The FMCSA estimates there are nearly 200,000 non-domiciled CDL holders, or approximately 5% of the 3.8 million active interstate drivers in 2024. If all these drivers are taken off the road over the next two years, as the agency predicts, Hosted said he would expect rates to go up between 2%–5% assuming the market is roughly at equilibrium now.

In this scenario, he added, retailers would likely feel the impact.

“If we shrink the amount of capacity and the number of drivers, there is the likelihood that when [retailers] go to negotiate new contracts, they’re going to have to pay a higher rate because of the supply and demand equilibrium being shifted,” he said.