Black Friday preview: Discount-hungry shoppers turn to generative AI and Gen Z boosts in-store shopping

Black Friday is almost here. That means that in a couple of days, hard data will start trickling in that could give us a taste of how the holiday shopping season is shaping up. In the meantime, numerous predictions and forecasts have circulated, and Retail Brew has assembled them here ahead of the big weekend.

Here are some topline numbers:

• A record 186.9 million people plan to shop during the five-day period including Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday, per the National Retail Federation. That’s up more than 3 million shoppers from last year.
• Among shoppers, expectations of steep discounts persist even as they spread out their holiday shopping. An Adobe Analytics survey found that 49% believe they will see the best deals on Friday. Indeed, the five-day period is expected to drive 17.2% of overall holiday spend, up 6.3% YoY.
• Deloitte predicts an uptick in participation, with 82% of respondents saying they plan to shop over the holiday period, up from 79% last year.
• However, the research firm is also anticipating a 4% decline in average spend, bringing the total down to $622 per household. Among those planning to cut their spending, 69% cited higher cost of living, while 43% cited financial constraints.
• Yet for all the interest in saving money, a study from WalletHub found that 36% of products would offer no real savings from their pre-Black Friday prices.

As for how and where consumers are shopping, here are some trends experts are noticing among shoppers ahead of the Thanksgiving weekend:

• In-store spending could get a boost from Gen Z, with 72% planning to shop in-store versus 49% of all shoppers, according to Deloitte. They are also now responsible for a fifth of all spending, making them a consumer force to be reckoned with.
• Many shoppers will also tap generative AI for their Black Friday shopping. Adobe Analytics predicts a 500% increase in traffic from generative AI to retail sites—traffic which it said is converting more often than non-AI sources.
• And then at the point of sale, more consumers will tap buy now, pay later apps for their purchases. Adobe is expecting about $20 billion in spending to be processed through these apps, between 9%–11% YoY growth.

Vivek Pandya, director of Adobe Digital Insights, told Retail Brew that what distinguishes this Thanksgiving weekend from past years was the convergence of several emerging trends, from social commerce to agentic AI. The key differentiator for brands, he added, will be how well they have adapted to these new technologies.

“It’s going to really be incumbent for these brands in these different industries and sectors to engage their users and drive loyal relationships, so that the consumer is keen to shop with them,” he said.