Holiday sales will hit up to $1.3 trillion this year: Deloitte

It’s mid–September, which means Halloween is right around the (retail) corner, which means it’s practically Christmas. And time to ring in the holiday forecasts.

Deloitte projects holiday sales will increase between 7% and 9% in 2021, totaling up to $1.3 trillion from November to January. That’s up from the 5.8% bump seen last year.

• Meanwhile, Mastercard SpendingPulse predicts holiday sales will grow by 7.4%.
• Bain pegs November and December sales at $800 billion this year, up 7%.

“We’re going to maintain the momentum of the recovery,” Rod Sides, Deloitte’s vice chairman and US leader of retail and distribution, told Retail Brew. “There was so much pent up demand, as we saw early in the year, and consumers felt more confident. We’re going to see the same thing happen again.”

Old habits: Pandemic-era online shopping conveniences are here for the long run, Sides said. Newly popular models like curbside pickup will still drive holiday e-comm growth, though not at the same 30%+ rate as last year, when shoppers had fewer options.

• E-comm sales will grow by 11% to 15% YoY this holiday season, per Deloitte, and hit between $210 billion and $218 billion.

Ups and downs: With increased demand, retailers have more room to sell at full price. “[They] may not have to go as deep with discounting...but it’s going to be a challenge,” Sides explained. Count shipping delays and supply-chain issues as two culprits for the “trickle-down effect.”—JG