Imports expected to decline significantly through 2026: NRF

A new report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates’s Global Port Tracker predicts import cargo will decline through the rest of the year after hitting a near-record peak over the summer.

The drop-off comes as retailers finish stocking up for the holidays, and now face an uncertain economic climate due to tariffs.

“Retailers have stocked up as much as they can ahead of tariff increases, but the uncertainty of US trade policy is making it impossible to make the long-term plans that are critical to future business success,” NRF’s VP for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a statement.

Reciprocal tariffs took effect in August, but steeper tariffs on China were delayed for another 90 days until November 10 while trade negotiations continued.

Looking back, it appears retailers front-loaded their imports to avoid higher costs. In July, US ports handled 2.36 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU), which is up 20.1% from June and 1.8% year over year.

Now Global Port Tracker is predicting imports to decline to 2.28 million TEU in August, 2.12 million TEU in September, and eventually as low as 1.8 million TEU in January 2026, which would mark a 19.1% year over year decline.

“The trade outlook for the final months of the year is not optimistic,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said.

Gold added tariffs will ultimately raise prices for US consumers. The industry group repeated this point in the release of its monthly Retail Monitor with CNBC, which tracks retail spending. The report found that spending continued to grow in August, as consumers stocked up on items such as school supplies in an effort to save money before tariffs kicked in and raised prices.

In August, total retail sales increased 0.5% month over month and 6.81% year over year.