The defense of the controversial American Eagle campaign featuring actor Sydney Sweeney by prominent Republicans, including President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance, appears to be helping boost sales for the brand more than the campaign itself, according to Consumer Edge data and analysis provided exclusively to Retail Brew.
Consumer Edge estimates companies’ revenues based on credit and debit card data from more than 93 million US cardholders. In an August 11 blog post highlighted in Adweek based on data that lagged by about a week, Michael Gunther, head of insights and VP at Consumer Edge, noted the “media frenzy” over the ads—which some allege promote eugenics and are oversexualized—caused a spike of buzz and website traffic for American Eagle. But at the time, Gunther concluded, it had not “yet translated into increased spending” for the brand or boosted its market share.
Consumer Edge
But after Retail Brew asked him to update the data, Gunther found that things had taken an interesting turn for American Eagle. Since the campaign had launched on July 23, YoY spending growth, meaning a credit card was used to spend more at American Eagle than last year (or to make a purchase there when it hadn’t last year), had consistently been higher for Democrats. On a graph, they looked like two sawtooth lines, with the Republican line roughly parallel but always below the Democrat line.
Around August 5, however, spending started increasing more steadily among Republicans, and on August 9, spending growth among Republicans overtook Democrats, and the rise continued to shoot upward on August 10 (the last day for which data is available), while it dipped only modestly for Democrats.
“This reversal suggests a reshuffling of consumer alignment, with Republicans increasingly engaging even as Democrats’ contribution moderated,” Gunther wrote in a yet-to-be-published blog post on the data.
Here’s an even shorter potential explanation: Donald Trump.
Dusk to Don: While prominent Democrat politicians have not publicly criticized the Sweeney campaign—the backlash has come largely from social media and celebrities including Doja Cat and Lizzo—major Republican politicians have defended the ads, often implying Democrat politicians really had made it an issue.
“My political advice to the Democrats is continue to tell everybody who thinks Sydney Sweeney is attractive is a Nazi,” Vance told the Ruthless podcast, per The Hollywood Reporter. “And it’s like, you guys, did you learn nothing from the November 2024 election?”
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On August 2, Buzzfeed reported that since June 2024, Sweeney has been registered as a Republican in Florida. When CNN asked Trump about it two days later, he replied, “If Sydney Sweeney is a registered Republican, I think her ad is fantastic.” That same day, Trump took to social media to declare, “Sydney Sweeney, a registered Republican, has the ‘HOTTEST’ ad out there. It’s for American Eagle, and the jeans are ‘flying off the shelves.’”
It was only after Trump’s comments rather than “initial coverage of the ad campaign” when the needle began to move for American Eagle sales, Gunther told Retail Brew.
According to Consumer Edge, the brand notched market-share gains in the wake of Trump’s comments, from slightly more than a 17.5% share of the market on August 2 to rising to slightly more than 19.5% on August 9 and dipping slightly under 19.5% on August 10, the last day for which data is available.
The apparent boost the brand may be getting from Republicans could be resonating more at American Eagle because over the past 12 months its purchasers have been 7% more likely to be Republicans compared to other brands in the apparel, accessories, and footwear industry, according to Consumer Edge.
Whether the response—and the response to the response—to the Sweeney campaign from conservative shoppers will result in sustained gains for American Eagle is an open question.
“It’s going to be important to monitor whether or not this is sustained or if it’s a blip, and we don’t know that yet,” Gunther said.
Foot traffic at American Eagle also suggests that initial negative reaction to the campaign may be turning around. Pass_by reported that after the Sydney campaign broke, foot traffic at its stores declined 3.9% YoY for the week that began July 27 and declined 9% for the week that began August 3. For the week that began August 10, foot traffic rose 2.6%.