Paper towels that had been shrinkflated accounted for 38.6% of total revenues in their category, according to a recent study by the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) for the period of 2021 through 2023. Boxes of cereal that had been shrinkflated, meanwhile, accounted for 8.6% of total revenue in their category during the same period, according to the study, which relied on NielsenIQ retail scanner data.
However, the number of products that are subject to shrinkflation—the term for products being downsized, often imperceptibly, without lowering the price—is significantly smaller, reflecting that the practice is more common for popular products. With paper towels, only 3% of items across the category were shrinkflated yet accounted for that 38.6% category share; for cereal, it was just 1.1% of shrinkflated items that commanded that 8.6% share.
The study—a 63-page doorstop prepared for a subcommittee of the Senate’s Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions—also examined four other categories: toilet paper (where shrinkflated products accounted for 11.6% of sales in the category), coffee (about 7% of sales), laundry detergent (about 3%), and over-the-counter pain relievers (about 1%).
Big little buys: For consumers who’ve taken to social media to express their outrage when they discover instances of shrinkflation, this aspect of the report will come as bad news: The strategy seems to be working for brands like a lucky charm.
Researchers reviewed six studies on how consumers respond to shrinkflation, and the common theme—even though shrinkflated items effectively are more expensive because shoppers pay more by volume—is raising prices without shrinking them has a more detrimental effect on products’ sales.
“Consumers were less likely to change their purchases in response to product downsizing than to an equivalent total price increase,” the report stated.
One study found that 93% of items that were shrinkflated saw no “statistically significant decline in the number of packages sold,” and some of them even saw more sales. Another found that raising the price of a product by just 1% resulted in a loss of sales of nearly double that: 1.95%. Conversely, shrinking the product by 1% led, inexplicably, to a slight increase of 0.76% of packages sold.
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“This limited responsiveness” from consumers to products being shrinkflated, the report stated, “could stem from lack of awareness of subtle packaging changes” and from “strong consumer preference for certain products and brands.”
Small changes: Befitting a report issued to a committee of lawmakers, it also reviewed laws and policies that aim to inform consumers who might not notice that there’s less toothpaste in the tube or fewer tortillas in the package.
In 2024, the study noted, France began requiring retailers to post signs on shelves warning consumers that products had been shrinkflated. That same year, South Korea put the onus on manufacturers to post notifications on a product’s packaging or at the product’s point of sale, including e-commerce sites.
The report noted that about 16 states and Washington, DC, have enacted uniform unit pricing regulations, which require retailers to display price-per-unit cost (often cost per ounce).
While the intentions of such laws might not be to flag shrinkflation per se, the report suggested that the regulations “can help consumers compare prices and make informed decisions” and as a result be a detriment to brands that have shrinkflated their products.
A 2024 study, for example, looked at how consumers responded to tuna brands shrinkflating their cans in states that had unit pricing regulations compared to states that did not.
Compared to states that had no such regulations, consumers in states with unit pricing requirements reduced their purchases of products that had been shrinkflated by 30%–84%.