What’s next for the beauty industry in 2026

Many trends in the beauty industry last year—from where and how consumers shop to what they’re buying—laid the groundwork for changes that will further shift the industry this year. Here’s how experts say the beauty industry will evolve in 2026 (and don’t worry: the fragrance obsession likely isn’t going anywhere).

Online continues to grow

Online channels, particularly Amazon and TikTok Shop, show no signs of slowing down in 2026, Anna Mayo, beauty and personal care thought leader at NielsenIQ, told Retail Brew. Amazon’s Premium Beauty store added several new brands at the end of 2025, most recently Bobbi Brown Cosmetics in December, and Bath & Body Works plans to launch on Amazon in the first half of 2026 as part of its turnaround strategy.

“You’ve got to go where the consumers are at the end of the day, and it’s going to be just harder and harder for people to stay off Amazon, because you’re really missing out on a lot of potential sales by not cooperating with them,” Mayo said.

How shoppers use Amazon will continue to shift this year, Tatiana Perim, partner and global lead for beauty and personal care at Kearney, noted. Once a platform for convenience, it’s increasingly becoming a channel for discovering and research as well, she said. Meanwhile, social commerce platforms, known for discovery, could be used more for replenishment, Manola Soler, managing director in the Consumer and Retail Group of Alvarez & Marsal, predicted.

And as the use of large language models changes how consumers shop online, how brands and retailers optimize for GEO could be “where a lot of the winners and losers are made” in 2026, Mayo said.

Shifting spending

The beauty industry is experiencing bifurcation; growth is largely coming from high-income shoppers (those with income over $100K), while low-income shoppers’ spend is beginning to decline, Mayo said, which could limit how much the industry can grow this year. Velocities could slow this year, Soler said, but spending should remain solid.

The club and dollar channels could both emerge as stronger beauty channels in 2026, Mayo predicted. Costco has been leaning into the high-income consumer base that shops beauty outside its store by bringing in more bulk fragrance and cosmetics offerings. Meanwhile, budget-conscious shoppers are gravitating toward the dollar channel rather than leaving the beauty category behind, she said.

Brand loyalty will continue to erode, but consumers will be more loyal to retailers, so brands with solid retail partnerships or “differentiated” DTC strategies will win, Soler predicted.

Category comebacks

As consumers shift their buying habits, efficacy will be key across categories, Soler said.

“Growth will concentrate around hero products, refills, and multifunctional formulas that clearly earn their place in a routine,” she said.

Fragrance’s popularity will likely continue this year as more shoppers have entered the category, Mayo noted. Skin care and adjacent products with skin benefits like lip balms could also do well, while the hair care category could lean further into the “skinification” trend and improve efficacy, Perim noted.

Makeup, which has seen much slower growth, largely from consumers over 30, will need to bring Gen Z back into the fold to grow this year, Mayo noted.

Sun care faced setbacks in 2025 amid controversy over the protection level in some Australian brands. However, the category could regain some momentum this year, Mayo noted, as the FDA in December proposed allowing the use of bemotrizinol, a UV light filter used in Europe and Asia, with sunscreens containing the ingredients potentially hitting the market later this year.

Shedding CPGs

Big beauty CPGs will continue rethinking their portfolios this year, Perim noted. Estée Lauder, which is in the midst of a turnaround effort, is reportedly looking to offload assets like K-beauty brand Dr. Jart and cosmetics brand Too Faced, Axios reported. Coty meanwhile, is mulling the sale of mass makeup brands CoverGirl and Rimmel, and LVMH could offload its 50% stake in Rihanna’s Fenty Beauty. And Kimberly-Clark’s announcement it would acquire Tylenol parent Kenvue has left the future of Kenvue’s beauty brands—like Neutrogena, Aveeno, and Clean & Clear—unclear this year.