NRF: Retail sales will jump 4.4% in 2026

The National Retail Federation (NRF) is predicting retail sales will grow 4.4% YoY to $5.6 trillion in 2026, the industry group announced this week.

Mark Mathews, NRF’s chief economist and executive director of research, said during a virtual event on Wednesday the group anticipates a “stronger than normal year.” The sales have averaged 3.6% annual growth over the past 10 years. Last year, NRF predicted retail sales would rise between 2.7% and 3.7% to $5.42–$5.48 trillion. Retail sales in 2025 rose 3.7% YoY, the Commerce Department reported last month. NRF’s prediction, created in partnership with Oxford Economics, excludes auto dealers, gas stations, and restaurants.

NRF expects spending to be boosted by tax cuts from the Working Families Tax Cut Act, as well as easing inflation it anticipates in the third quarter.

“While we do expect inflation to remain above the Fed’s target for the year, we also expect goods inflation will remain in a slightly lower band, meaning that a significant proportion of NRF’s forecasted growth will actually be real growth, and not just an inflation-induced rise in spending,” Mathews said.

Mathews noted there is “too much uncertainty” to factor the impact of the US and Israel’s war with Iran on retail sales into its prediction, but said the group “will continue to assess potential impacts and issue a re-forecast if circumstances dictate so.”

He also noted that anticipated consumer spending this year will “not be uniform across all income groups,” as continued consumer bifurcation means higher-income consumers will drive the bulk of spending in 2026.

NRF’s is the rosiest of 2026’s retail sales predictions: Bain & Company anticipates retail sales to increase 3.5% YoY, with “modest” volume growth, a drop from its 4% prediction for 2025, while other predictions have been even lower.

The latest monthly survey on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan showed consumer sentiment dropped 2% to its lowest reading of the year. The report noted initial gains in sentiment in February dropped following the onset of the war in Iran.