Kearney’s global luxury outlook shows spending increasingly concentrated among ultra-wealthy

From store closures and geopolitical tensions to rising costs and supply chain disruptions, retailers seem to be facing a never-ending sea of challenges. And luxury hasn’t been exempt.

Kearney’s 2026 global luxury industry outlook, however, shows signs of stabilization.

While a spending pullback in China and sweeping C-suite changes across luxury brands have shaken the industry, “the global luxury market is stabilizing at a more measured pace,” per the report.The company predicts a growth of 2%–4% in 2026 that is likely “unevenly distributed across regions, categories, and client tiers.”

Still, Katie Thomas, lead at Kearney Consumer Institute and co-author of the report, told Retail Brew she’s not “overly bullish,” as aspirational consumers continue to weigh whether to spend on luxury or trade down to mass-market brands.

Instead, the study found that spending remains concentrated among the top 2% of consumers, who now account for “nearly half” of total luxury spend with “traditionalists” remaining “resilient” when faced with changes. In fact, 50% reported no behavioral changes in response to price increases.

“The luxury market is a great example of even further illustrating the K-shaped economy because you do see that high-net-worth consumer propping up the spend, but there’s risk to only catering to that consumer,” Thomas said. “That’s what I hear a lot of brands want to do is really stay focused on this high-end person, but you have a lot of people chasing what is ultimately a small group of consumers.”

But whether it’s a high-net-worth customer or an aspirational shopper, one thing is clear: Consumers are increasingly scrutinizing the “price-value equation,” she said.

Citing price hikes in leather goods as an example, Thomas added that shoppers aren’t entirely convinced it’s worth investing in traditional luxury names or whether they’re better off opting for more “approachable luxury” brands.

“It’s…not even about if you can afford these price increases; you don’t want to feel like you’re being taken for a ride,” Thomas said.

It’s also why the report points to a continued shift toward luxury experiences—travel, wellness, and even biohacking—as consumers perceive greater value in those categories.

Thomas noted that while these categories fall outside traditional definitions of luxury, consumers are increasingly prioritizing spending on hospitality and other high-end experiences, with continued growth in luxury stores and spas. At the same time, elements of beauty and wellness are becoming more accessible, from IV infusions and red light therapy to elevated food and beverage offerings.

Ultimately, for brands hoping to capitalize on the experience economy, the path forward may lie in blending products with experience. “[Consumers] don’t really think as much by category,” Thomas said. “They’re thinking just about the overall, holistic experience. Brands are increasingly doing a better job of partnerships and figuring out where there’s overlap and not staying too siloed into what has traditionally defined luxury.”