Experts predict ‘robust’ holiday season fueled by higher prices and value-conscious shoppers

Holiday forecasts are rolling in, and once again experts are betting on a relatively strong holiday sales season despite economic uncertainty and high gas prices.

“There is a general consensus that this will be a robust holiday season with overall sales growth in the 4%–5% range,” Neil Saunders, managing director and retail analyst at GlobalData, told Retail Brew. “This is consistent with the solid spending uplift that has been coming from consumers all year.”

The caveat is that many forecasts include the impact of higher prices, he added, whereas volumes “remain positive but are somewhat weaker.” The pressure on volumes could mean that not every retailer will get a “good slice of the action this season,” and fortunes could diverge across the sector. Looking across the range of predictions, Saunders noted that the biggest deviation is in how the online channel will fare. “This will be one to watch as we know consumers that are deal hunting tend to use online a bit more,” he said.

Here’s a roundup of the forecasts so far:

National Retail FederationData points: Based on multiple economic indicators—including consumer spending, employment, wages, disposable personal income, and inflation—NRF predicts retail sales will increase 4.2% from last year, compared to a 3.1% YoY increase in 2025.

Insights: Get ready—because this is a theme for 2026—but NRF CEO Matthew Shay said “consumers will prioritize the holiday season even as they remain mindful of their budgets.” NRF Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research Mark Mathews went so far as to say “consumers remain the bright spot in the economy.”

Deloitte

Data points: Based on a survey of 4,000 consumers, Deloitte predicts average household spending to increase 4% YoY. Demographically, Gen Z and millennials are also pulling their weight, hitting a combined 50% of holiday spending for the first time.

Insights: “The value hunt is very much on,” Deloitte reports. Just under 40% of shoppers qualify as “value seekers,” meaning they will be shopping promotions, redeeming rewards, and looking to private labels as alternatives, and will spend 12% more than other groups of shoppers.

Mastercard Economics Institute

Data points: Looking at real-time sales processed through its SpendingPulse platform, the Mastercard Economic Institute (MEI) predicts retail sales to increase 5.5%, making this the strongest holiday since 2022. It predicts online sales to increase 11% and physical store sales to increase 3.6%, the biggest jump in four years.

Insights: The research group noted that half of the growth comes from higher prices, which is typical in recent years, but it’s notable that energy costs and “AI-driven demand” are largely to blame this year. The impact of AI will also be felt this season, according to MEI, with AI power users—those with paid AI subscriptions—spreading their spending across a wider range of retailers than consumers who do not pay for an AI subscription.

PwC

Data points: Based on a survey of more than 4,000 consumers, the accounting firm predicts holiday gift spending will dip 2%, and 79% of respondents say deals and discounts will impact their shopping.

Insights: As their financial responsibilities mount, millennials are pulling back this season with a 10% cut in gift budgets. However, Gen Z is similarly tempering their spending with a 9% cut in gift spending, while boomers are moving in the opposite direction with plans to spend 6% more of their discretionary spending.

International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)

Data points: Based on a survey of more than 1,000 consumers, ICSC forecasts retail sales to rise between 4.3% and 4.9%, and 78% of shoppers plan to spend the same or more than last year.

Insights: Consumers are willing to make trade-offs this year to participate in the season, per the report, with 49% expecting to borrow money to cover their purchases and 47% anticipating holiday spending will delay or reduce debt repayment.

Adobe Analytics

Data points: Based on more than 1 trillion visits to US retail websites and supplementary survey of 5,000 shoppers, Adobe Analytics predicts a 6.7% increase in topline spending this holiday season.

Insights: The analytics company expects value shoppers to drive online spending, making up $1 out of every $4. In addition, holiday shopping also isn’t just about gift purchases, with consumers planning to leverage sales events to stock up on everyday goods at a lower cost.