Deloitte: Consumers say they’ll spend 10% less this holiday season

Consumers aren’t feeling quite so jolly about this holiday shopping season.

According to a new Deloitte Holiday Retail survey published this week, 57% of consumers believe that the economy will weaken in the next year. That’s the most negative economic sentiment since Deloitte began tracking it in 1997, surpassing the 54% who said so amid the 2008 recession.

Consumers’ average planned holiday spend is down 10% year over year to $1,595, per Deloitte. Largely due to higher cost of living, 27% plan to spend less on retail categories, with planned spend on retail products declining nearly 14% after two years of growth. Average spend on non-gifts (like clothing and decor) is set to decline 22%, compared to a 6% drop for gifts. And some consumers are whittling down their shopping lists; the average number of gifts consumers plan to buy has dropped from nine to eight this year.

Gen Z and millennials are anticipating the biggest YoY dip in spend—down 34% and 13%, respectively—though the percentage of consumers who said their financial situation is worse than last year increased across most generations since last year, though it stayed steady for baby boomers.

Spending is expected to drop across all surveyed income groups after two years of growth in anticipated holiday spend, with those making less than $50K dropping spend by 24% (and 22% on retail goods) and those making $200K+ pulling back 11% (and an even bigger 18% drop on retail goods). More consumers (47% versus 39% in 2024) are opting to gift experiences. While average holiday spend on retail goods has been flat since 2021, experiences have risen 7%.

Naughty and price: Per Deloitte, 77% of consumers anticipate their holiday goods will have higher prices, aligning with the 79% of shoppers NRF said believed their Halloween goods would cost more this year.

In September, Deloitte said holiday retail sales growth would slow from its 4.2% uptick last year, and EY-Parthenon said last week any boosts in holiday retail sales this season would be largely due to higher prices, not volumes.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’s September CPI data release, intended for this week, was rescheduled to October 24 due to the government shutdown. Prices jumped 0.4% in August, continuing consistent monthly hikes since April. And a recent Goldman Sachs report indicated consumers might not feel pricing relief anytime soon, as they’re bearing the brunt (55%) of tariff costs.