Higher travel costs means consumers may stay home and buy more groceries this Thanksgiving

If the wilting spun-around jack-o-lantern on your porch is any indication, it’s officially Thanksgiving grocery shopping season.

Consumers continue to be price conscious this season, with 80% planning to stick to a budget, per PwC, but an expected 25% drop in consumer travel this holiday could actually benefit grocers.

“We do think that could be good for the overall grocery business because people will probably be staying home and spending more,” Kelly Pedersen, global retail leader at PwC US, told Retail Brew.

This year, many retailers vying for shoppers’ grocery business are slicing prices on their Thanksgiving meal deals compared to last year.

Walmart’s offering this year bested its 10-person, ~$40 deal last year, offering a 10-person feast for $35, with 18% more food items that the retailer says cost 12% less than last year. Aldi, meanwhile, notched its $40, 10-person meal from last year down $1 to $39. After dropping its 10-person deal by $10 to $36 last year, Lidl this year is marketing a 10-person, $34.40 dinner, and is promising to price match Walmart and Aldi’s comparable total Thanksgiving basket price.

Sam’s Club’s larger 16-person, $160 Thanksgiving meal this year is the same per-person price as its 10 person, $100 offering last year, and was crafted through consumer feedback from its 200,000 Member’s Mark members, EVP and Chief Merchandising Officer Myron Frazier said at Groceryshop this year, resulting in a meal with an additional protein and an appetizer.

Target is selling a $30 meal for six—a slightly higher per-person price compared to last year’s four-person meal marketed as “under $20,” though the retailer pointed out its turkey prices remain the same for the third straight year.

Retailers’ Thanksgiving meal bundles have been a strong tactic to drive sales and traffic, Pedersen said, though they have to be sure the prices they advertise align with those consumers find at checkout. And even those without a specific meal bundle should be particular about the items they’re highlighting.

“Be precise in terms of the marketing and promotion investments from a grocery perspective to make sure you know you’re promoting the products that consumers really want,” he said.

And as much as retailers are pushing to make themselves a one-stop shop, many shoppers will turn to AI to get the best deals on each item on their list, Pedersen said. That could mean consumers will head to a few different stores—including dollar stores and discounters—to get everything they need, he said.